IMF ups Korea's 2025 growth outlook to 0.9%

Choi Ji-won 기자
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이동 통신망을 이용하여 음성을 재생하면 별도의 데이터 통화료가 부과될 수 있습니다.

Pedestrians cross a street in Jongno-gu, central Seoul, on Tuesday. (Newsis)


The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for South Korea to 0.9 percent, up from its July projection of 0.8 percent.

The IMF kept its 2026 outlook for the country’s real gross domestic product expansion unchanged at 1.8 percent.

The 0.9 percent forecast matches the Bank of Korea's projection and is slightly above the Korea Development Institute's 0.8 percent estimate. It is marginally lower than the 1 percent forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Asia Development Bank's 0.8 percent outlook.

The IMF's upgrade reflects expectations of an improving economic environment, which the Ministry of Economy and Finance said will likely put the Korean economy back on track toward its potential growth rate of around 2 percent next year.

In September, Rahul Anand, the IMF’s mission chief for Korea, said the Korean economy is expected to rebound as political and global trade policy uncertainties ease, with more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies and a robust semiconductor sector helping offset export declines.

The IMF also raised its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage point from July to 3.2 percent, citing eased uncertainty from US tariff measures, resilient adjustment by businesses amid inventory realignment and trade restructuring, and a weaker US dollar. The 2026 global outlook was left unchanged at 3.1 percent.

For advanced economies, the IMF lifted its 2025 outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 1.6 percent, while keeping its 2026 forecast at the same level. For emerging and developing economies, it raised the 2025 projection to 4.2 percent and maintained its 2026 forecast at 4 percent.

Global inflation is expected to fall to 4.2 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, continuing a downtrend from 5.8 percent in 2024. The IMF noted, however, that inflation in the US is likely to pick up as higher tariffs on trade partners begin to feed through to consumers, reaching 2.7 percent this year and easing to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent long-term target only by 2027.

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